Recession update

Confidence. Probably the most important measure of when and how we will get out of this recession. We know that in order for all of us to get out of this recession, The U.S, housing market and the various stock markets need to turn around.We are already seeing very encouraging signs on our local markets as were addressed in recent reports, however it is also important to understand that the good news also coming out is better than expected via US Housing data and the positive growth in the stock markets. We are not out of this soup yet but we are certainly hearing that the worst may be over.

Pending sales of previously owned homes rose for a second straight month in March, while construction spending edged higher, according to reports yesterday that suggested a moderation in the housing slump.

"On balance, it's an encouraging set of news. Pending home sales tell us, as far as the housing sector is concerned, we are getting near the bottom," said Nigel Gault, chief U. S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. Financial Post, May 5, 2009

“We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year. Recent data suggest the recession may be loosening its firm grip on the country" Ben Bernanke, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, May 5, 2009

The pace at which house prices in Canada are falling is moderating and at this rate, this housing market correction (from a national perspective) will end up being a mild one—both in absolute and relative terms. In fact, the notable improvement in housing affordability is injecting some life to the mortgage market, encouraging new purchasing and refinancing activities.Consumer confidence in both countries is starting to improve, while retail sales are surprisingly on the upside. Benjamin Tal, CIBC Senior Economist, May 1, 2009

“I think there is some legs here and we can continue on the upside longer than maybe we originally expected,” Charles Marleau, portfolio manager at Palos Management Inc. in Montreal. Vancouver Sun, May 4, 2009

“The stock market continues to shake off bad news. Instead, even small hints of positive news are embraced, suggesting that the bearish pall over equities is slowly lifting,” said the research firm based in Montreal. BCA Research, Vanouver Sun, May 4, 2009